Gompertz-Makeham law of mortality.html

The Gompertz-Makeham law states that death rate is a sum of age-independent component (Makeham term) and age-dependent component (Gompertz function), which increases exponentially with age. In a protected environment where external causes of death are rare (laboratory conditions, low mortality countries, etc.) the age-independent mortality component is often negligible, and in this case the formula simplifies to a Gompertz law of mortality (proposed by Benjamin Gompertz in 1825) with exponential increase in death rates with age.

The Gompertz-Makeham law of mortality describes the age dynamics of human mortality rather accurately in the age window of about 30-80 years. At more advanced ages the death rates do not increase as fast as predicted by this mortality law - a phenomenon known as the late-life mortality deceleration.

Historical decline in human mortality before 1950s was mostly due to decrease in the age-independent mortality component (Makeham parameter), while the age-dependent mortality component (the Gompertz function) was surprisingly stable in history before 1950s. After that a new mortality trend has started leading to unexpected decline in mortality rates at advanced ages and 'de-rectangularization' of the survival curve.

In terms of reliability theory the Gompertz-Makeham law of mortality represents a failure law, where the hazard rate is a mixture of non-aging failure distribution, and the aging failure distribution with exponential increase in failure rates.

The Gompertz law is the same as a Fisher-Tippett distribution for the negative of age, restricted to negative values for the random variable (positive values for age).

Gompertz-Makeham law of mortality.html

See also

Further reading